Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 48.7%

MTL: 51.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.21

MTL: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.58
1	MTL	15	0	0.93
2	PIT	24	0	1.50
2	MTL	15	0	0.93
3	PIT	20	1	1.75
3	MTL	10	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5