Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 63.6%
CAR: 36.4%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.24
CAR: 2.34
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
| Stat | WSH | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.915 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.957 | 0.920 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | WSH 4 - 3 CAR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-11 | WSH 2 - 3 CAR | CAR | WSH |
| 2025-11-11 | CAR 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | CAR |
| 2025-05-15 | WSH 1 - 3 CAR | CAR | WSH |
| 2025-05-12 | CAR 5 - 2 WSH | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13:43 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 05:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 17:45 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 11:32 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 3.2 - 2.3