Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 50.0%

DAL: 50.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.10

DAL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	MIN	DAL
Season SV%	0.912	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	18	16	2	88.9%	1.21	0	-0.79
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	27	5	84.4%	4.58	3	-0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	1.17
1	DAL	6	0	0.27
2	MIN	24	1	1.46
2	DAL	10	0	0.30
3	MIN	11	2	1.95
3	DAL	13	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown