Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 59.3%
BUF: 40.7%
Expected Goals
VAN: 3.51
BUF: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 11-26-5 | 0.877 SV% | 3.65 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | VAN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.872 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.938 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs BUF: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | BUF 5 - 3 VAN | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-11 | VAN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | VAN |
| 2025-01-21 | VAN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | VAN |
| 2024-11-29 | BUF 3 - 4 VAN | VAN | BUF |
| 2024-03-19 | VAN 3 - 2 BUF | VAN | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:36 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 19:49 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 06:15 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 09:12 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 14:46 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8
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