San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 65.8%

SJS: 34.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.14

SJS: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	1	1.43
1	SJS	17	0	1.12
2	PIT	27	1	1.64
2	SJS	10	0	0.65
3	PIT	16	2	1.38
3	SJS	23	5	3.08
4	PIT	1	0	0.08
4	SJS	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8