Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 44.2%

WSH: 55.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.01

WSH: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	WPG	WSH
Season SV%	0.907	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	24	1	96.0%	1.92	1	0.92
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	30	5	85.7%	3.14	0	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.86
1	WSH	4	0	0.14
2	WPG	13	0	0.91
2	WSH	11	1	0.53
3	WPG	19	0	1.37
3	WSH	19	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown