Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-12-14 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 78.9%

PHI: 21.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.74

PHI: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	CAR	PHI
Season SV%	0.901	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	28	26	2	92.9%	3.53	4	1.53
PHI	Dan Vladar	34	31	3	91.2%	4.39	2	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CAR at home vs PHI: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-10-03	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	22	0	1.05
1	PHI	7	0	0.44
2	CAR	17	0	1.00
2	PHI	11	1	1.10
3	CAR	17	1	1.03
3	PHI	20	3	1.57
4	CAR	4	0	0.29
4	PHI	1	0	0.17
5	CAR	3	1	1.02
5	PHI	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6