Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

MTL: 56.3%

EDM: 43.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.45

EDM: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.58
1	EDM	16	1	1.35
2	MTL	15	3	1.49
2	EDM	12	1	0.94
3	MTL	7	3	1.56
3	EDM	17	2	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0