Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-15 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 60.0%

FLA: 40.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.52

FLA: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	TBL	FLA
Season SV%	0.894	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	24	19	5	79.2%	2.32	2	-2.68
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	26	2	92.9%	2.12	2	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	23	1	1.12
1	FLA	10	0	0.85
2	TBL	9	1	0.51
2	FLA	16	1	1.22
3	TBL	14	0	0.49
3	FLA	3	1	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown