Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-15 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.9%
FLA: 40.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.59
FLA: 2.77
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | TBL | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.952 | 0.892 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | TBL 6 - 1 FLA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-27 | FLA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-15 | TBL 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | TBL |
| 2025-11-15 | FLA 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-30 | TBL 3 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:16 | FLA | Goal |
| 1 | 03:48 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 11:48 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 18:08 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 19:27 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 02:11 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 06:37 | FLA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.6 - 2.8
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