Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-15 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 52.6%

ANA: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.96

ANA: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	NYR	ANA
Season SV%	0.910	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	22	4	84.6%	3.26	2	-0.74
ANA	Lukas Dostal	27	26	1	96.3%	2.64	1	1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs ANA: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	ANA 5 - 3 NYR	ANA	ANA
2025-12-15	NYR 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	NYR
2025-03-28	ANA 5 - 4 NYR	ANA	NYR
2024-10-26	NYR 2 - 1 ANA	NYR	NYR
2024-01-21	ANA 2 - 5 NYR	NYR	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	20	1	1.13
1	ANA	14	0	0.53
2	NYR	18	0	0.94
2	ANA	16	1	1.38
3	NYR	11	0	0.56
3	ANA	12	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown