Utah Hockey Club at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 46.8%

UTA: 53.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.98

UTA: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	BOS	UTA
Season SV%	0.903	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	21	20	1	95.2%	2.23	0	1.23
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	23	19	4	82.6%	2.79	2	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs UTA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	BOS 6 - 1 UTA	BOS	BOS
2025-12-16	BOS 4 - 1 UTA	BOS	UTA
2025-10-19	UTA 3 - 2 BOS	UTA	UTA
2024-11-21	BOS 1 - 0 UTA	BOS	UTA
2024-10-19	UTA 2 - 1 BOS	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	10	0	0.49
1	UTA	20	0	1.41
2	BOS	12	1	1.19
2	UTA	4	0	0.29
3	BOS	13	1	1.11
3	UTA	11	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown