Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-16 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 59.2%
PHI: 40.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.34
PHI: 2.74
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | MTL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.881 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | PHI 4 - 2 MTL | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-12-16 | MTL 1 - 4 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-11-04 | MTL 4 - 5 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-04-05 | MTL 3 - 2 PHI | MTL | PHI |
| 2025-03-27 | PHI 6 - 4 MTL | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:00 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:39 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:26 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:10 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:25 | PHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
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