New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 52.0%

NYI: 48.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.05

NYI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	DET	NYI
Season SV%	0.893	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	18	16	2	88.9%	1.12	0	-0.88
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	18	3	85.7%	3.81	5	0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	2	1.09
1	NYI	13	0	0.48
2	DET	10	1	0.78
2	NYI	11	0	0.43
3	DET	14	2	1.94
3	NYI	6	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown