Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 0 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 41.4%

WSH: 58.6%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.72

WSH: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	MIN	WSH
Season SV%	0.912	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	25	0	100.0%	2.84	1	2.84
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	32	27	5	84.4%	3.39	2	-1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	12	0	0.80
1	WSH	15	1	1.01
2	MIN	21	2	1.88
2	WSH	18	0	1.25
3	MIN	14	0	0.71
3	WSH	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown