Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 6 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 48.2%

CGY: 51.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.98

CGY: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	SJS	CGY
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	30	27	3	90.0%	2.01	1	-0.99
CGY	Dustin Wolf	26	20	6	76.9%	4.24	3	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SJS at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	18	0	1.37
1	CGY	12	0	0.59
2	SJS	13	0	0.65
2	CGY	12	1	0.81
3	SJS	13	3	2.22
3	CGY	15	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown