Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 50.3%

EDM: 49.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.81

EDM: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	BOS	EDM
Season SV%	0.903	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	22	3	88.0%	2.93	3	-0.07
EDM	Tristan Jarry	26	25	1	96.2%	2.33	1	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BOS at home vs EDM: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	EDM 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	EDM
2025-12-18	BOS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	BOS
2025-01-07	BOS 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-19	EDM 3 - 2 BOS	EDM	EDM
2024-03-05	BOS 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	10	0	0.55
1	EDM	8	0	0.23
2	BOS	14	1	0.77
2	EDM	12	1	1.31
3	BOS	14	0	1.01
3	EDM	14	2	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown