Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 70.3%

LAK: 29.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.53

LAK: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	TBL	LAK
Season SV%	0.913	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	18	2	90.0%	1.52	1	-0.48
LAK	Anton Forsberg	32	31	1	96.9%	3.68	4	2.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.10
1	LAK	11	0	0.42
2	TBL	17	0	0.71
2	LAK	11	1	0.77
3	TBL	20	3	1.86
3	LAK	4	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown