Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-18 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings
🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 71.7%
LAK: 28.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.89
LAK: 2.06
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
LAK
Darcy Kuemper - 19-14-15 | 0.891 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | TBL | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.833 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.826 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.27 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs LAK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | LAK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | LAK |
| 2025-12-18 | TBL 1 - 2 LAK | LAK | TBL |
| 2025-01-30 | TBL 3 - 0 LAK | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-04 | LAK 2 - 1 TBL | LAK | LAK |
| 2024-03-23 | LAK 4 - 3 TBL | LAK | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:58 | LAK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 71.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings
Expected: 3.9 - 2.1
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