Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

WSH: 60.9%

TOR: 39.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.36

TOR: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	1.38
1	TOR	9	0	0.94
2	WSH	19	0	1.28
2	TOR	13	0	0.67
3	WSH	17	0	0.96
3	TOR	12	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7