Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-12-18 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 59.3%
DAL: 40.7%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.40
DAL: 3.22
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | SJS | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.870 | 0.926 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • SJS at home vs DAL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | SJS 5 - 4 DAL | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-12-18 | SJS 3 - 5 DAL | DAL | SJS |
| 2025-12-05 | DAL 4 - 1 SJS | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-02-08 | SJS 3 - 8 DAL | DAL | SJS |
| 2024-11-20 | DAL 5 - 2 SJS | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:38 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 12:25 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:17 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:44 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:40 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:43 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:42 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:32 | DAL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.4 - 3.2