Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 5 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 40.3%

DAL: 59.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.89

DAL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	SJS	DAL
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	30	25	5	83.3%	2.76	1	-2.24
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	34	3	91.9%	3.83	5	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 81% • SJS at home vs DAL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-05	DAL 5 - 0 SJS	DAL	DAL
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	3	1.54
1	DAL	14	0	0.69
2	SJS	21	1	1.27
2	DAL	16	0	1.12
3	SJS	13	1	1.03
3	DAL	10	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown