New Jersey Devils at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-12-19 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 58.5%

NJD: 41.5%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.14

NJD: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	UTA	NJD
Season SV%	0.895	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	22	20	2	90.9%	2.28	3	0.28
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	33	32	1	97.0%	2.93	0	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs NJD: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	NJD 4 - 1 UTA	NJD	NJD
2025-12-19	UTA 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	UTA
2025-03-01	UTA 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	UTA
2024-10-14	NJD 3 - 0 UTA	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	0	0.72
1	NJD	12	2	0.96
2	UTA	21	0	1.13
2	NJD	11	0	0.81
3	UTA	12	0	1.08
3	NJD	9	1	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown