New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-12-20 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.6%
NYI: 42.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.04
NYI: 3.12
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.967 | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • BUF at home vs NYI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-11-01 | BUF 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:47 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:37 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 08:55 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:31 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1