Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 58.3%

MTL: 41.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.30

MTL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	2	1.59
1	MTL	12	2	1.02
2	PIT	21	1	1.43
2	MTL	10	0	0.43
3	PIT	14	1	0.88
3	MTL	11	0	0.65
4	PIT	1	0	0.10
4	MTL	8	0	0.86
5	PIT	3	2	1.73
5	MTL	3	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0