Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 60.0%

MTL: 40.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.21

MTL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	PIT	MTL
Season SV%	0.886	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	28	24	4	85.7%	4.00	3	0.00
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	29	5	85.3%	5.73	6	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	PIT
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	2	1.59
1	MTL	12	2	1.02
2	PIT	21	1	1.43
2	MTL	10	0	0.43
3	PIT	14	1	0.88
3	MTL	11	0	0.65
4	PIT	1	0	0.10
4	MTL	8	0	0.86
5	PIT	3	2	1.73
5	MTL	3	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8