Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 66.3%

TOR: 33.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.46

TOR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	DAL	TOR
Season SV%	0.907	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	2.81	1	1.81
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	22	17	5	77.3%	3.29	3	-1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.66
1	TOR	13	0	0.50
2	DAL	7	0	0.47
2	TOR	21	1	1.70
3	DAL	17	3	2.16
3	TOR	13	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown