Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-12-21 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 61.2%
TOR: 38.8%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.82
TOR: 3.51
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | DAL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.964 | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | DAL 5 - 1 TOR | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-01-14 | TOR 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | TOR |
| 2024-12-18 | DAL 3 - 5 TOR | TOR | DAL |
| 2024-02-07 | TOR 5 - 4 DAL | TOR | TOR |
| 2023-10-26 | DAL 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:30 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:43 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:55 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:10 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:39 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:03 | DAL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.8 - 3.5