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Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-21 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
EDM: 47.3%
VGK: 52.7%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.01
VGK: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
StatEDMVGK
Season SV%0.9060.895
Last 5 SV%0.8370.879
SV% vs Opponent——
GAA2.732.50
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-04-04EDM 1 - 5 VGKVGKEDM
2026-03-26VGK 3 - 4 EDMEDMVGK
2026-03-08VGK 2 - 4 EDMEDMEDM
2025-12-21EDM 4 - 3 VGKEDMVGK
2025-05-14VGK 0 - 1 EDMEDMVGK

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
109:11EDMGoal
114:37EDMGoal
202:22EDMGoal
207:45EDMGoal
212:59EDMGoal
303:52EDMGoal
305:49EDMGoal

🎯 Shot Chart

Shot chart for Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0