St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-22 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

TBL: 65.1%

STL: 34.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.76

STL: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	1	1.05
1	STL	9	0	0.53
2	TBL	12	0	0.79
2	STL	13	0	0.65
3	TBL	5	0	0.50
3	STL	13	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6