St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-22 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 74.3%
STL: 25.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.85
STL: 2.47
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
STL
Joel Hofer - 23-13-5 | 0.910 SV% | 2.60 GAA
| Stat | TBL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.917 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.944 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.87 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | TBL |
| 2025-12-22 | TBL 4 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-19 | TBL 3 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-05 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | STL |
| 2023-12-19 | TBL 6 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:36 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 74.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.8 - 2.5
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