St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-22 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 66.6%
STL: 33.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.00
STL: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | TBL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.765 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | TBL |
| 2025-12-22 | TBL 4 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-19 | TBL 3 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-05 | STL 3 - 2 TBL | STL | STL |
| 2023-12-19 | TBL 6 - 1 STL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:36 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 66.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 4.0 - 3.1