Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 44.9%
PIT: 55.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.14
PIT: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TOR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.862 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 09:51 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 13:34 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:35 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:57 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:36 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
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