Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-12-23 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 57.4%
MTL: 42.6%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.28
MTL: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 31-18-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.71 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | BOS | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.876 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BOS at home vs MTL: 5-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | MTL 3 - 2 BOS | MTL | MTL |
| 2026-01-24 | BOS 4 - 3 MTL | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-12-23 | BOS 2 - 6 MTL | MTL | BOS |
| 2025-11-15 | MTL 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | MTL |
| 2025-04-03 | MTL 4 - 1 BOS | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:08 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 12:25 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 19:42 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 01:58 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 07:04 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:43 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:09 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:22 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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