Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Nashville Predators (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 51.0%

NSH: 49.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.36

NSH: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	MIN	NSH
Season SV%	0.912	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	29	26	3	89.7%	2.88	2	-0.12
NSH	Juuse Saros	32	30	2	93.8%	2.86	2	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MIN at home vs NSH: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NSH 2 - 1 MIN	NSH	MIN
2026-02-04	NSH 5 - 6 MIN	MIN	NSH
2025-12-23	MIN 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	MIN
2025-11-04	MIN 3 - 2 NSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-18	NSH 6 - 2 MIN	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.94
1	NSH	12	1	0.88
2	MIN	13	2	1.55
2	NSH	18	0	0.99
3	MIN	12	0	0.37
3	NSH	10	1	0.80
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	NSH	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8