Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 42.4%

PHI: 57.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.92

PHI: 3.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	CHI	PHI
Season SV%	0.909	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	26	23	3	88.5%	3.90	4	0.90
PHI	Samuel Ersson	21	20	1	95.2%	2.40	1	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	10	0	0.46
1	PHI	12	1	1.15
2	CHI	17	1	1.20
2	PHI	14	1	0.72
3	CHI	10	0	0.74
3	PHI	15	2	2.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown