San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 68.8%

SJS: 31.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.70

SJS: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	VGK	SJS
Season SV%	0.883	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	23	21	2	91.3%	1.72	0	-0.28
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	19	7	73.1%	4.15	3	-2.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • VGK at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	25	3	2.61
1	SJS	6	0	0.13
2	VGK	10	0	0.91
2	SJS	6	0	0.22
3	VGK	7	0	0.63
3	SJS	23	0	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown