New York Rangers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 0 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 53.8%

NYR: 46.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.36

NYR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	NYI	NYR
Season SV%	0.909	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	27	27	0	100.0%	2.63	1	2.63
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	24	2	92.3%	4.73	5	2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs NYR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NYR 5 - 2 NYI	NYR	NYR
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	2	1.54
1	NYR	10	0	0.43
2	NYI	11	1	0.97
2	NYR	13	0	0.68
3	NYI	13	2	2.22
3	NYR	19	1	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown