Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 37.1%

OTT: 62.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.76

OTT: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 36%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	00:40	TOR	Goal
1	14:42	TOR	Goal
1	17:50	TOR	Goal
2	00:18	TOR	Goal
2	03:28	TOR	Goal
2	07:28	TOR	Goal
2	08:32	TOR	Goal
3	00:14	TOR	Goal
3	05:07	TOR	Goal
3	05:53	TOR	Goal
3	09:18	TOR	Goal
3	18:44	TOR	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3