Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 53.8%

MIN: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.09

MIN: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	WPG	MIN
Season SV%	0.907	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	19	15	4	78.9%	2.92	3	-1.08
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	26	23	3	88.5%	2.99	2	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • WPG at home vs MIN: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	MIN 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	MIN
2025-12-27	WPG 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-11-23	WPG 0 - 3 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-10-28	MIN 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	MIN
2024-12-21	WPG 5 - 0 MIN	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.77
1	MIN	12	1	0.78
2	WPG	15	0	0.96
2	MIN	11	0	0.73
3	WPG	10	2	1.19
3	MIN	13	2	1.28
4	WPG	1	0	0.07
4	MIN	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3