Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 55.2%

CHI: 44.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

CHI: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	DAL	CHI
Season SV%	0.907	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	32	5	86.5%	4.53	5	-0.47
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	33	29	4	87.9%	5.95	11	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • DAL at home vs CHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.05
1	CHI	11	0	0.58
2	DAL	10	3	1.22
2	CHI	14	1	0.92
3	DAL	18	5	2.34
3	CHI	14	2	1.03
4	DAL	4	1	0.50
4	CHI	2	0	0.11
5	DAL	3	1	0.84
5	CHI	4	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1