Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 50.3%

COL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.20

COL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	VGK	COL
Season SV%	0.883	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	43	36	7	83.7%	6.05	5	-0.95
COL	Scott Wedgewood	27	21	6	77.8%	4.37	4	-1.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.61
1	COL	16	0	0.58
2	VGK	16	1	1.39
2	COL	21	1	1.42
3	VGK	13	2	1.23
3	COL	28	2	1.93
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
4	COL	6	0	0.48
5	VGK	4	1	1.14
5	COL	4	2	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3