Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 56.4%

TOR: 43.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.24

TOR: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	DET	TOR
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	27	25	2	92.6%	2.85	3	0.85
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	36	33	3	91.7%	2.90	0	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.69
1	TOR	15	0	0.71
2	DET	18	0	0.62
2	TOR	12	2	1.34
3	DET	20	0	1.26
3	TOR	12	1	0.71
4	DET	3	0	0.33
4	TOR	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8