Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-12-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 33.2%

PIT: 66.8%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.65

PIT: 4.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	CHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.909	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	24	17	7	70.8%	2.67	2	-4.33
PIT	Arturs Silovs	24	21	3	87.5%	3.55	3	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CHI at home vs PIT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CHI 5 - 3 PIT	CHI	PIT
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	1	1.41
1	PIT	14	1	1.01
2	CHI	15	2	1.33
2	PIT	17	1	1.57
3	CHI	16	0	0.81
3	PIT	2	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown