Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 50.7%

WSH: 49.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.19

WSH: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	FLA	WSH
Season SV%	0.888	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	24	3	88.9%	3.83	4	0.83
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	24	5	82.8%	4.09	6	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • FLA at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	2	1.11
1	WSH	17	2	1.76
2	FLA	17	3	1.68
2	WSH	18	1	1.37
3	FLA	15	1	1.30
3	WSH	8	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown