Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Boston Bruins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 55.3%

BOS: 44.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.53

BOS: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	CGY	BOS
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	26	25	1	96.2%	2.24	2	1.24
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	21	19	2	90.5%	2.72	2	0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	CGY
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.65
1	BOS	13	2	1.05
2	CGY	13	0	0.78
2	BOS	9	0	0.45
3	CGY	3	1	0.26
3	BOS	11	0	0.51
4	CGY	3	1	1.03
4	BOS	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9