Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 59.2%

MIN: 40.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.00

MIN: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	MIN
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	2	0.90
1	MIN	12	1	1.06
2	VGK	14	1	0.85
2	MIN	23	0	1.11
3	VGK	8	2	1.22
3	MIN	9	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0