Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-12-29 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 57.3%
MIN: 42.7%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.22
MIN: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
| Stat | VGK | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.836 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | VGK 2 - 4 MIN | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-12-29 | VGK 2 - 5 MIN | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-11-16 | MIN 3 - 2 VGK | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-05-01 | MIN 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-04-29 | VGK 3 - 2 MIN | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:26 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 14:06 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 00:26 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 04:32 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 06:56 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 16:50 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 02:14 | MIN | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
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