Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 57.7%

MIN: 42.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.36

MIN: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	VGK	MIN
Season SV%	0.883	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	27	22	5	81.5%	2.59	1	-2.41
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	16	14	2	87.5%	2.97	5	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	2	0.90
1	MIN	12	1	1.06
2	VGK	14	1	0.85
2	MIN	23	0	1.11
3	VGK	8	2	1.22
3	MIN	9	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown