San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-29 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 62.5%

SJS: 37.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.64

SJS: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	ANA	SJS
Season SV%	0.888	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	13	8	5	61.5%	1.81	1	-3.19
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	42	38	4	90.5%	5.04	3	1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • ANA at home vs SJS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	ANA 6 - 1 SJS	ANA	ANA
2026-04-01	SJS 4 - 3 ANA	SJS	SJS
2025-12-29	ANA 4 - 5 SJS	SJS	ANA
2025-10-11	SJS 6 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-01	ANA 4 - 3 SJS	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	18	1	1.63
1	SJS	12	1	0.93
2	ANA	24	0	1.42
2	SJS	6	0	0.59
3	ANA	21	2	1.99
3	SJS	5	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown