New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-30 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 46.4%

NJD: 53.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.34

NJD: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	TOR	NJD
Season SV%	0.914	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	33	33	0	100.0%	3.13	2	3.13
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	30	26	4	86.7%	3.87	4	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	NJD
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	NJD
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	NJD
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	1	1.18
1	NJD	12	1	0.85
2	TOR	11	1	0.81
2	NJD	20	1	1.43
3	TOR	14	2	1.88
3	NJD	16	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown