Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 53.7%

NSH: 46.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.53

NSH: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	VGK	NSH
Season SV%	0.895	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	19	15	4	78.9%	2.35	2	-1.65
NSH	Justus Annunen	31	29	2	93.5%	3.16	2	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs NSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NSH 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-21	NSH 4 - 1 VGK	NSH	VGK
2026-01-17	VGK 7 - 2 NSH	VGK	VGK
2025-12-31	VGK 2 - 4 NSH	NSH	VGK
2025-04-12	VGK 5 - 3 NSH	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.88
1	NSH	14	0	0.83
2	VGK	7	0	0.43
2	NSH	13	1	0.93
3	VGK	28	1	1.85
3	NSH	8	1	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown