Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

ANA: 40.2%

TBL: 59.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.16

TBL: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	ANA
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	12	0	0.39
1	TBL	13	1	0.81
2	ANA	13	1	0.88
2	TBL	13	1	0.86
3	ANA	19	1	1.59
3	TBL	11	0	0.57
4	ANA	1	0	0.06
4	TBL	4	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6