Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 57.1%

WPG: 42.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.27

WPG: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	DET	WPG
Season SV%	0.893	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	24	23	1	95.8%	2.32	1	1.32
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	19	17	2	89.5%	1.16	0	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	WPG 1 - 5 DET	DET	WPG
2025-12-31	DET 2 - 1 WPG	DET	DET
2025-01-04	WPG 2 - 4 DET	DET	WPG
2024-10-30	DET 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2023-12-20	WPG 5 - 2 DET	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	10	0	0.59
1	WPG	8	1	0.60
2	DET	9	0	0.41
2	WPG	11	0	0.63
3	DET	4	0	0.16
3	WPG	16	0	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown