Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 58.2%

BUF: 41.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.52

BUF: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	DAL	BUF
Season SV%	0.912	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	31	27	4	87.1%	3.12	3	-0.88
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	28	1	96.6%	3.27	4	2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	1.28
1	BUF	23	2	1.60
2	DAL	9	2	1.19
2	BUF	14	0	0.91
3	DAL	14	1	0.81
3	BUF	9	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown