Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 61.1%

PHI: 38.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.47

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	CGY	PHI
Season SV%	0.901	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	26	1	96.3%	3.35	2	2.35
PHI	Samuel Ersson	26	21	5	80.8%	3.08	1	-1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	1	0.85
1	PHI	9	0	0.38
2	CGY	21	0	1.46
2	PHI	13	2	1.74
3	CGY	13	0	0.76
3	PHI	20	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown