Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-31 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 57.0%

BOS: 43.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.42

BOS: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	EDM	BOS
Season SV%	0.883	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	29	23	6	79.3%	2.08	0	-3.92
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	36	34	2	94.4%	4.24	4	2.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs BOS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	EDM 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	EDM
2025-12-18	BOS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-07	BOS 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-19	EDM 3 - 2 BOS	EDM	EDM
2024-03-05	BOS 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	21	2	2.04
1	BOS	15	0	0.67
2	EDM	11	1	0.97
2	BOS	15	0	0.78
3	EDM	14	1	1.23
3	BOS	11	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown