Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 73.3%

WSH: 26.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.53

WSH: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	OTT	WSH
Season SV%	0.872	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	29	26	3	89.7%	2.39	1	-0.61
WSH	Logan Thompson	32	28	4	87.5%	4.19	2	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs WSH: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	7	0	0.30
1	WSH	19	1	1.33
2	OTT	20	0	1.63
2	WSH	10	0	0.38
3	OTT	17	2	2.27
3	WSH	10	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown