Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

OTT: 73.3%

WSH: 26.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.51

WSH: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs WSH: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	7	0	0.30
1	WSH	19	1	1.33
2	OTT	20	0	1.63
2	WSH	10	0	0.38
3	OTT	17	2	2.27
3	WSH	10	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7