Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2026-01-01 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 72.4%
WSH: 27.6%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.45
WSH: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | OTT | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.925 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs WSH: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | WSH 4 - 1 OTT | WSH | OTT |
| 2026-01-01 | OTT 4 - 3 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-10-25 | WSH 1 - 7 OTT | OTT | WSH |
| 2025-03-03 | WSH 5 - 4 OTT | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-01-30 | OTT 5 - 4 WSH | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:13 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 18:59 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 07:42 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 19:31 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 02:47 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 15:53 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:38 | OTT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 72.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0
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