Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TOR: 56.7%

WPG: 43.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.21

WPG: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • TOR at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.93
1	WPG	14	0	0.53
2	TOR	18	0	1.13
2	WPG	21	3	1.79
3	TOR	12	0	0.66
3	WPG	18	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0