Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 54.0%

WPG: 46.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.11

WPG: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	TOR	WPG
Season SV%	0.914	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	40	35	5	87.5%	3.20	3	-1.80
WPG	Eric Comrie	30	24	6	80.0%	2.71	0	-3.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.93
1	WPG	14	0	0.53
2	TOR	18	0	1.13
2	WPG	21	3	1.79
3	TOR	12	0	0.66
3	WPG	18	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown